Brazil election goes to run-off as right-wing Flávio Bolsonaro wins first round
UPD Though it seems he's a "strong favourite" for second round too:
Bolsonaro will go into the second round as strong favourite and is likely to be boosted by the migration of votes from the election’s other rightwing candidates, who included Ronaldo Caiado, who secured 2.1%, and Renan Santos, who won 2.2%.
And do you see all the people in the streets celebrating? That is a preference cascade, and it is fatal to communist regimes and other forms of tyrannical rule. Which is why I used the term, because it applies in spades.
The support is roughly 50/50 (47%/45%) - if Lula had won, there would have been people in the streets celebrating too. And you are saying "tyrannical rule" as if Lula was in power for decades - there was Bolsonaro (father) in power 4 years ago.
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It's just the first round
UPD Though it seems he's a "strong favourite" for second round too:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/05/brazil-presidential-race-election-result-second-round-lula-flavio-bolsonaro
It does look like he has 85% odds on Polymarket
83% on Kalshi.
While I'm sharing this kind of data, might as well cover the Israel elections.
48% for Gadi Eizenkot, 36% of Bibi on Polymarket
45% and 33% on Kalshi
US midterms
66% Dem sweep, 8% Rep sweep, 28% split, Polymarket
63%, 8.2%, 30%, Kalshi
Also, are you unaware of what "in progress" means? Because it is not, I assure you, semantically equivalent to "everything is finished and over".
Yes, it is the first round.
And do you see all the people in the streets celebrating? That is a preference cascade, and it is fatal to communist regimes and other forms of tyrannical rule. Which is why I used the term, because it applies in spades.
The support is roughly 50/50 (47%/45%) - if Lula had won, there would have been people in the streets celebrating too. And you are saying "tyrannical rule" as if Lula was in power for decades - there was Bolsonaro (father) in power 4 years ago.